So last week turned out to be a reverse image of the previous week with a sharp
decline Mon from WS hysteria over Trumps "you are fired" threat to the Fed's
chair the previous week with another flip-flop and a strong rally the rest of
the week, blaming media misinterpretation. Trumps
policy positions, including tariffs, are beginning to look like a Spanish soap
opera and is not likely to generate a lot of confidence in foreign trade
partners to "make a deal". If we make it thru the 90 day tariff grace period and
everyone decides to wait to see what the "real deal" actually is, Trump is
likely to explode. On the markets, I seemed to be the only one expecting
the SPX to rally with a 5480-5520 target, but now that the "triangle" was broken
thru to the upside every one has turned bullish. Well not everyone,
Pretlzel Logic views SPX 5500-600
as important resistance and Springhell
Jack sees a H&S potential for the SPX with major risk from weakness in the
US dollar and bonds. The USDEUR is down 15% this year even with EU
economies in recession due to EUs stronger fiscal discipline and 100B euro
purchase of US bonds in Jan is now worth 85B euros, now thats a tariff.
Several of the important ST/INT indicators are warning of trouble ahead
including the VIX call indicator, the FOMO call indicator and hedge spread, but
a two to three week topping pattern is possible. Many have noted the
strong breath on many of the recent rallies which have also given a positive
bias to the ST Composite, but given the fact that most of the moves are "news
driven" (Trumps reversals), it seems like most of the buying may be short
covering as shorts are caught of guard.
SPX options are showing a slight positive bias thru Wed (EOM) toward 5540-50,
while Fri (Apr jobs) are not showing call resistance until 5600 and support at
5500, but I am not expecting any major surpriise.
I. Sentiment Indicators
The INT/LT Composite indicator (outlook 3 to 6+ months) has three separate
components. Starting Aug 26, 2023 SPX options are removed due to extreme 0DTE volume
distortions. New weights are ETF put-call indicator (30%), SPX 2X ETF INT
ratio (40%), and 3rd a volatility indicator (30%) which combines the options
volatility spread of the ST SPX (VIX) to the ST VIX (VVIX) with the UVXY $ volume.
Update Alt, INT view. Bearish sentiment retreated to below neutral and
remains weak compared to the 2022 bear market.
Update Alt EMA. Bearish sentiment moved closer to neutral or below.
The ST Composite as a ST (1-4 week) indicator includes the NYSE volume ratio
indicator (NYDNV/NYUPV & NYDNV/NYDEC) and the UVXY $ Vol/[SPX Trend, SMA only]. Weights
are 80%/20%.
Update. Bearish sentiment saw a sharp drop back to neutral.
Update EMA. Bearish sentiment rose slightly but remains below a weak Buy.
The ST VIX calls and SPXADP indicator bearish sentiment saw a very sharp drop
moving from above neutral to below the weak Sell, very similar to the Mar 2022
bear market rally.
The ST/INT Composite indicator (outlook 1 to 3 months) is based on the Hedge Spread (48%)
and includes ST Composite (12%) and three options FOMO indicators using SPX (12%),
ETF (12%), and Equity (12%) calls compared to the NY ADV/DEC issues (inverted). FOMO
is shown when strong call volume is combined with strong NY ADV/DEC. See
Investment Diary
addition for full discussion.
Update EMA. Bearish sentiment moved further down from neutral, now near a
weak Sell.
FOMO calls. Bearish sentiment saw a very sharp drop with excessive call
buying and moved from a weak Buy to well below a weak Sell.
Bonds (TNX). Bearish sentiment remains at extremely low levels.
Springhell Jack thinks a bond panic
could send the TNX to 8-9% this year.
For the INT outlook, the gold miners (HUI) bearish
sentiment is presented in a new format using the data mining software to add
the inverse TNX rate to the ETF ratio.
Update. Bearish sentiment continues to rise and may support prices.
II. Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicators
This is a new hybrid option/ETF Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicator as a INT/LT
term (outlook 2-6 mns) bearish sentiment indicator. The use of ETFs
increases the duration (term).
With the sister options Hedge Spread as a ST/INT indicator
(outlook 1-3 mns), bearish sentiment dropped sharply below neutral with the
last several weeks sentiment very similar to Feb-Mar 2022.
A new composite SPX options indicator uses both the volume adj (1/B-A) and P/C
equivalent spread (A-B) to compensate for the discrepancy between the two.
This replaces the old SPX options indicator for the SPX ETFs + options below and the
INT/LT composite. No chart.
For the SPX, I am switching to hybrid 2X ETFs plus SPX options. Taking a look at the
INT term composite (outlook 2 to 4 mns), bearish sentiment fell slightly, but
remains positive.
For the NDX combining the hybrid ETF options plus NDX 3X ETF sentiment with the interest rate effect,
(outlook 2 to 4 mns) bearish sentiment shows similar extremes between ETF and
options as in late 2020 which resulted in a choppy market until options
sentiment rose. Note QQQ options are optimal, but are N/A and are included
in ETF options.
Bearish sentiment fell back to negative with a decline led by ETF P/Cs.
For the SPX combining the hybrid ETF options plus SPX 2X ETF (outlook 2 to 4 mns)
produces an indicator where, in this case, ETF options are a proxy for the SPY options.
Bearish sentiment for SPX fell below neutral from just below a weak Buy.
III. Options Open Interest
Using Thur closing OI, remember that further out time frames are more likely
to change over time, and that closing prices are more likely to be effected.
Delta hedging may occur as reinforcement, negative when put support is broken
or positive when call resistance is exceeded. This week I will look
out thru May 2. A text overlay is used for extreme OI to improve readability,
P/C is not changed. A new addition is added for OI $ amounts with breakeven pts (BE) where
call & put $ amounts cross. Note multiply OI$ by 100 for shares/contract.
With Fri close at SPX 5525, options OI for Mon is very small with put
support down at 5400 and call resistance at 5560.
Wed EOM has large SPX OI where put support is at 5500 and call resistance at
5600 and a slight positive bias to 5540.
For Fri strong SPX call resistance at 5600+ should limit rallies, while
disappointing jobs numbers (strong) could result in a move to 5500 or less.
IV. Technical / Other
The following uses barcharts.com as a source and discusses S&P futures (ES) as a third
venue of stock sentiment in addition to options and ETFs. The non-commercial/commercial
spread represents a LT bearish sentiment (dumb money/smart money) indicator. As explained in investopedia,
commercial investors (red) are institutions and are smart money, while non-commercials (green) are speculators such as
hedge funds and are dumb money. Here is the current barchart graph
for the S&P 500 (top) and trader positions (1st bot) with positives as net longs and negatives
as net shorts.
Bearish sentiment is represented by the spread and is positive if red > green
(Buy) and negative if green > red (Sell). ES (SPX) bearish
sentiment moved to positive at 0.25 SD, NQ (NDX) bearish sentiment remains at a weak Sell at
-1.25 SD, YM (DJIA) is neutral at 0.0 SD.
Click dropdown list to select from the following options:
Tech / Other History
2025
2024
2023
2022
Other Indicators
Conclusions. Last weeks rally may continue for a few weeks, but upside is
probably limited to SPX 5600-700. I am constantly watching both the USD
and TNX for potential problems with the TNX sandwitched between 50,100&200 SMAs,
while USD has broken below 100 and shows no sign of recovering. The most
important chart may be the USDJPY
which looks like a dbl-top H&S with lower values negatively effecting the yen
carry trade which caused a sharp decline last summer. How long can the BOJ keep
rates at 0.5% when inflation is 3%?
Weekly Trade Alert. Some positive bias ST. Updates @mrktsignals.
Last week was expected to see a continuation of the relief rally
from Trumps 90 day stay on reciprocal tariffs for everybody but China (at least
until he changed his mind) while trade negotiations continued. The monthly
SPX options exp OI supported a move to 5500+ and the week started strong with a
move to SPX 5450, but another shocker appeared Wed when Trump sited national
security risk to prevent the sale of the lower end (H20) NVDA AI modules to
China. This dragged down the tech sector with NVDA falling 10%+, and Thur
weaker EPS guidance (-10%) by UnitedHealth caused the stock to fall 20% and
shaved almost 800 pts off the DJIA.
For the week Pretzel
Logics triangle was the clear winner with the lows at SPX 5225 completing
his "d wave" with a move to 4600-4700 expected after "e wave" up is completed.
However, I still think a test of last weeks high at SPX 5481 (5480-5520) is
possible (red declining line) to clear bearish sentiment before a larger decline
(odds at 50/50). One possible reason was announcement of a "letter of
intent" between the US and Ukraine on a rare earth minerals deal late Thur.
The Tech/Other section looks at this possibility comparing sentiment from the
Rydex Bear/Bull 3x fund ratio to the
2022 bear market (Feb) with the 4th wave triangle of wave A down. An
update of the LT NAAIM index also shows a 20 pt drop to similar levels as Feb
2022.
Sentiment remains modestly positive overall, but near-term market direction
can remain at the whim of Trumps directives. Ie, was the NVDA action a
reciprocal action to Chinas export limits on rare earth minerals or a response
to competition from the DeepSeek software? Similar actions with other
companies will be a negative, but other developments such as the Ukraine
minerals deal can be a positive. With buyers front-running the tariffs, Q1I
sales, EPS and GDP may be stronger than expected for the short-term.
I. Sentiment Indicators
The INT/LT Composite indicator (outlook 3 to 6+ months) has three separate
components. Starting Aug 26, 2023 SPX options are removed due to extreme 0DTE volume
distortions. New weights are ETF put-call indicator (30%), SPX 2X ETF INT
ratio (40%), and 3rd a volatility indicator (30%) which combines the options
volatility spread of the ST SPX (VIX) to the ST VIX (VVIX) with the UVXY $ volume.
Update Alt, INT view. Bearish sentiment rose to in-between the weak and
strong Buys.
Update Alt EMA. Bearish sentiment remains positive but below a weak Buy.
The ST Composite as a ST (1-4 week) indicator includes the NYSE volume ratio
indicator (NYDNV/NYUPV & NYDNV/NYDEC) and the UVXY $ Vol/[SPX Trend, SMA only]. Weights
are 80%/20%.
Update. Bearish sentiment remains in-between weak and strong Buys.
Update EMA. Bearish sentiment is below a weak Buy.
The ST VIX calls and SPXADP indicator remains at a weak Buy.
The ST/INT Composite indicator (outlook 1 to 3 months) is based on the Hedge Spread (48%)
and includes ST Composite (12%) and three options FOMO indicators using SPX (12%),
ETF (12%), and Equity (12%) calls compared to the NY ADV/DEC issues (inverted). FOMO
is shown when strong call volume is combined with strong NY ADV/DEC. See
Investment Diary
addition for full discussion.
Update EMA. Bearish sentiment is close to neutral.
Bonds (TNX). Bearish sentiment remains at low extremes.
The gap at 4.270% may have been filled with a drop to 4.725%. Trader Joe did a
LT chart of TNX from 2020 last week
showing a 2 yr triangle with an upside target of 5.5% or higher.
For the INT outlook, the gold miners (HUI) bearish
sentiment is presented in a new format using the data mining software to add
the inverse TNX rate to the ETF ratio.
Update. Bearish sentiment continues to rise as prices move higher and could
mean more upside.
II. Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicators
This is a new hybrid option/ETF Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicator as a INT/LT
term (outlook 2-6 mns) bearish sentiment indicator. The use of ETFs
increases the duration (term).
Update. Bearish sentiment continued retreating to neutral.
With the sister options Hedge Spread as a ST/INT indicator
(outlook 1-3 mns), bearish sentiment retreated slightly.
A new composite SPX options indicator uses both the volume adj (1/B-A) and P/C
equivalent spread (A-B) to compensate for the discrepancy between the two.
This replaces the old SPX options indicator for the SPX ETFs + options below and the
INT/LT composite. No chart.
For the SPX, I am switching to hybrid 2X ETFs plus SPX options. Taking a look at the
INT term composite (outlook 2 to 4 mns), bearish sentiment increased slightly
to .5 SD.
For the NDX combining the hybrid ETF options plus NDX 3X ETF sentiment with the interest rate effect,
(outlook 2 to 4 mns) bearish sentiment shows similar extremes between ETF and
options as in late 2020 which resulted in a choppy market until options
sentiment rose. Note QQQ options are optimal, but are N/A and are included
in ETF options.
Bearish sentiment remains below a weak Buy.
For the SPX combining the hybrid ETF options plus SPX 2X ETF (outlook 2 to 4 mns)
produces an indicator where, in this case, ETF options are a proxy for the SPY options.
Bearish sentiment for SPX retreated to a weak Buy.
III. Options Open Interest
Using Thur closing OI, remember that further out time frames are more likely
to change over time, and that closing prices are more likely to be effected.
Delta hedging may occur as reinforcement, negative when put support is broken
or positive when call resistance is exceeded. This week I will look
out thru Apr 25. A text overlay is used for extreme OI to improve readability,
P/C is not changed. Also, this week includes a look at GDX, TLT & IBIT for Mar exp.
A new addition is added for OI $ amounts with breakeven pts (BE) where
call & put $ amounts cross. Note multiply OI$ by 100 for shares/contract.
With Fri close at SPX 5283, options OI for Mon is small with put support up to
5300, but could move higher with call resistance in the mid 5450s.
Wed has smaller OI where SPX has put support up to 5500.
For Fri strong put OI could result in strong positive delta hedging but no
targets are seen.
For EOM Wed Apr30 stronger OI, esp puts, show strong put support up to 5500 and
could push prices toward SPX 5500 or higher.
Using the GDX as a gold miner proxy closing at 50.9, could see positive delta
hedging over 50, but below 50 support is 47-8.
Currently the TLT is 87.5 with the TNX at 4.33%, 87-91 is essentially neutral
due top straddles. Support is 85 and resistance 92
IV. Technical / Other
Last week the Rydex 3x ETF Bear/Bull Ratio reached the Buy level matching the
level of the Jan 2022 lows which
could indicate that the SPX could be in a long and painful period as it took
twice as long and twice a % drop in 2025 as in 2022. The next chart shows
details for 2022.
In 2022, the first wave down (A) was 5 waves with a small triangle (T1) comparable to
the current triangle in 2025. Interesting, the SPX ATH in 2022 was 4819, 20
pts below the recent low early Apr, and the projections of the current triangle
breakdown at 4600-700 are very similar to the Mar 2022 top. In 2022, the
triangle did see a fake breakout at 4595 (dbl top) before the 5th wave down started,
so I am giving a 50/50 chance of a test of 5480+ before a larger decline.
As noted the wave 5 could also see a bottoming triangle.
The NAAIM weekly active managers exposure index had risen from 49% to 57% two
weeks ago after the Trump tariff reprieve, but last week fell 22 pts to a low of
35 very similar to the low of Feb 2022 supporting the idea of a near term bounce.
The following uses barcharts.com as a source and discusses S&P futures (ES) as a third
venue of stock sentiment in addition to options and ETFs. The non-commercial/commercial
spread represents a LT bearish sentiment (dumb money/smart money) indicator. As explained in investopedia,
commercial investors (red) are institutions and are smart money, while non-commercials (green) are speculators such as
hedge funds and are dumb money. Here is the current barchart graph
for the S&P 500 (top) and trader positions (1st bot) with positives as net longs and negatives
as net shorts.
Bearish sentiment is represented by the spread and is positive if red > green
(Buy) and negative if green > red (Sell). ES (SPX) bearish
remains neutral at -0.0 SD, NQ (NDX) bearish sentiment remains at a weak Sell at
-1.25 SD, YM (DJIA) is neutral at 0.0 SD.
Click dropdown list to select from the following options:
Tech / Other History
2025
2024
2023
2022
Other Indicators
Conclusions. Triangles everywhere, but which way to go. The
outlook for the coming week is non-committal. It's possible to just go
sideways, but the EOM SPX options OI is showing another strong possibility of a
move toward SPX 5500 and a late week deal with Ukraine could be the catalyst.
For some reason the Mar CPI (Apr 10) seems to have been overlooked, but the
monthly was -0.1% and 2.4% annual. With FOMC date May 6-7 and June 17-18,
two more low CPIs could be close to 2% by June and lead to a softer tone from
Powell. Could also coincide with market lows if Trump does not get what he
wants from negotiations or bond vigilantes revolt.
Weekly Trade Alert. If triangle breakdown not imminent this week,
next week could see a fake breakout to the upside. Updates @mrktsignals.
Last weeks winner appeared to be Trader Joe whose ES/SPX target near 4800 was
close enough at 4838 and the 5600-700 upside looks possible. Trump apparently decided to
dial back the rhetoric and Wed mid-day announced a 90 day stay on reciprocal
tariffs for everybody but China and stocks exploded higher with a 10% rally from
SPX 4950 to 5481. This weekend he has also announced an exemption on
reciprocal tariffs on a number of electronic items, which include China, and
appear to specifically target big tech such as APPL and NVDA. Weekend
indications (ig.com) are a 3%+
gain for NDX and 2% for SPX, so SPX 5600-700 is looking more likely.
Possibly the most interesting was that Trump posted "Now is a Great Time to Buy"
on Truth Social 3 hrs before
the Wed announcement, perhaps to increase his following and the value of his
interest in TS.
Last week did, however, give a hint as to what could be the reason for a
second leg down when bonds (TNX) showed a sharp
reversal from its downtrend from a Jan high of 4.8% to an Apr 4 low at 3.9%.
Mon saw a sharp jump from about 3.97% to 4.25% on the announcement of a $1T
defense budget and again on Wed to 4.4% when the Senate passed Trumps tax cut
bill and increased the Federal debt limit by $5T from $35T to 41T. If DOGE
and other tax cuts are supposed to be saving so much money, why does the Trump
admin need to spend $5T more than Biden? One possible reason for the
increase rates is a seondary effect of tariffs as discussed in Tech/Other.
Bearish sentiment has increased to the point where a sustained rally could
occur and could even extend to nominal new highs into the Fall as happened after
the 2018 tariff episode, but I think the next leg down is more likely to be from
rising int rates as the "tariff shock" has mostly passed. With the
TNX the breakout over the "bull
flag" has left a gap at 4.3%, which is about a 38% retrace from the 4.6% high,
and is likely to be filled. A decline in rates will help stocks rally and
the SPX OI for next weeks monthly exp on Thur shows SPX 5500+ as a likely
target. If the rally in rates continues as an ABC and A=C, then next
target is 5%, and any higher than that is likely to see a new low for the SPX.
I. Sentiment Indicators
The INT/LT Composite indicator (outlook 3 to 6+ months) has three separate
components. Starting Aug 26, 2023 SPX options are removed due to extreme 0DTE volume
distortions. New weights are ETF put-call indicator (30%), SPX 2X ETF INT
ratio (40%), and 3rd a volatility indicator (30%) which combines the options
volatility spread of the ST SPX (VIX) to the ST VIX (VVIX) with the UVXY $ volume.
Update Alt, INT view. Bearish sentiment spiked to a strong Buy Mon/Tue at
the SPX 4800 lows, but retreated to just inside the weak Buy by EOW.
Update Alt EMA. Bearish sentiment declined to the week to about .5SD after
an early spike over a weak Buy.
The ST Composite as a ST (1-4 week) indicator includes the NYSE volume ratio
indicator (NYDNV/NYUPV & NYDNV/NYDEC) and the UVXY $ Vol/[SPX Trend, SMA only]. Weights
are 80%/20%.
Update. Bearish sentiment on a short timeframe gave a strong Buy at the lows
an an in-between weak/strong Buy at EOW.
Update EMA. Bearish sentiment (LT view) reached a strong Buy at the lows but
retreated to a weak Buy by EOW. Comparing sentiment at the SPX lows to
other selloffs, the Covid lows were much stronger while current sentiment is
comparable to Oct-Nov 2018 and mid-2022, where each was only the first leg down
with a lower low yet to come.
The ST VIX calls and SPXADP indicator bearish sentiment rose to just shy of a
strong Buy,
then retreated to a weak Buy.
The ST/INT Composite indicator (outlook 1 to 3 months) is based on the Hedge Spread (48%)
and includes ST Composite (12%) and three options FOMO indicators using SPX (12%),
ETF (12%), and Equity (12%) calls compared to the NY ADV/DEC issues (inverted). FOMO
is shown when strong call volume is combined with strong NY ADV/DEC. See
Investment Diary
addition for full discussion.
Update EMA. Bearish sentiment spiked above a strong Buy but retreated to
below a weak Buy by EOW and seems incomplete.
FOMO calls rose to a strong Buy, but compared to 2022 may indicate only a
ST bounce.
Bonds (TNX). Bearish sentiment remains at low extremes.
Rates had been declining in an down channel (bull flag) from mid-Jan at 4.8%
thur early Apr, but reversed on the 4th from a 3.9% low. Over the next six days rates rose
to 4.6% on Fri.
For the INT outlook, the gold miners (HUI) bearish
sentiment is presented in a new format using the data mining software to add
the inverse TNX rate to the ETF ratio.
Update. Bearish sentiment overall is slightly below neutral, while ETF
sentiment is slightly positive.
II. Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicators
This is a new hybrid option/ETF Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicator as a INT/LT
term (outlook 2-6 mns) bearish sentiment indicator. The use of ETFs
increases the duration (term).
Update. Bearish sentiment rose sharply to a weak Buy, but below levels seen
at prior INT lows.
With the sister options Hedge Spread as a ST/INT indicator
(outlook 1-3 mns), bearish sentiment briefly spiked to a strong Buy VST
before falling back to below a weak Buy.
A new composite SPX options indicator uses both the volume adj (1/B-A) and P/C
equivalent spread (A-B) to compensate for the discrepancy between the two.
This replaces the old SPX options indicator for the SPX ETFs + options below and the
INT/LT composite. No chart.
For the SPX, I am switching to hybrid 2X ETFs plus SPX options. Taking a look at the
INT term composite (outlook 2 to 4 mns), bearish sentiment reversed from
below to above neutral.
For the NDX combining the hybrid ETF options plus NDX 3X ETF sentiment with the interest rate effect,
(outlook 2 to 4 mns) bearish sentiment shows similar extremes between ETF and
options as in late 2020 which resulted in a choppy market until options
sentiment rose. Note QQQ options are optimal, but are N/A and are included
in ETF options.
Bearish sentiment improved significantly, rising from a weak Sell to
in-between neutral and a weak Buy.
For the SPX combining the hybrid ETF options plus SPX 2X ETF (outlook 2 to 4 mns)
produces an indicator where, in this case, ETF options are a proxy for the SPY options.
Bearish sentiment for SPX also rose sharply based on strong ETF P/Cs to
in-between a weak and strong Buys.
III. Options Open Interest
Using Thur closing OI, remember that further out time frames are more likely
to change over time, and that closing prices are more likely to be effected.
Delta hedging may occur as reinforcement, negative when put support is broken
or positive when call resistance is exceeded. This week I will look
out thru Apr 17. A text overlay is used for extreme OI to improve readability,
P/C is not changed. Also, this week includes a look at GDX, TLT & IBIT for Mar exp.
A new addition is added for OI $ amounts with breakeven pts (BE) where
call & put $ amounts cross. Note multiply OI$ by 100 for shares/contract.
With Fri close at SPX 5363, options OI for Mon is small. Premarket looks
to open over SPX 5400 resistance so next target is 5450 or higher.
Wed has somewhat larger OI where SPX OI is also strong and could see some
pullback with call resistance at 5425 and 5475, but Thur strong put support is
likely to support a move toward 5500.
For Thur AM (Good Fri is Holiday) strong SPX OI shows a strong bias toward SPX
5500.
For Thur PM strong SPX OI shows a bias to 5500+.
IV. Technical / Other
This week I want to look at the foreign investors holdings of US debt as a
percent of GDP and why it may be driven by trade globalism. First, a
primer of intl trade by J.Maudlin
looks as trade having three components goods (G), services (S), and financial
assets, mainly bonds (B). Here, with Trumps policies, he only considers G.
For example if the US buys $100B (80B in G, 20B in S) from country X and X buys
$100B from US ($40B in G, 40B in S and $20B in B) then Trump/Navarro call this
a $40B deficit looking only at the purchase of G and demands that country X buy
more of G from US. However, since they only receive $100B from US (US $),
country X must buy less or sell some of S or B.
The following chart shows the effects as foreign holdings of US debt as % GDP increased
from 5% in 1980 to 35% when Trump was first elected. The trend was down
until Biden was elected, but when he kept the Trump tariffs the selling
continued and now stands around 25% or $8T. In 2016 China was the largest holder
with over $1T in US debt and had dropped down to $750B early this year.
Likely they have been selling more and that may be why rates rose last week.
Japan is now the largest holder with $1T US debt and recent USD weakness may
have also caused them to sell.
The following uses barcharts.com as a source and discusses S&P futures (ES) as a third
venue of stock sentiment in addition to options and ETFs. The non-commercial/commercial
spread represents a LT bearish sentiment (dumb money/smart money) indicator. As explained in investopedia,
commercial investors (red) are institutions and are smart money, while non-commercials (green) are speculators such as
hedge funds and are dumb money. Here is the current barchart graph
for the S&P 500 (top) and trader positions (1st bot) with positives as net longs and negatives
as net shorts.
Bearish sentiment is represented by the spread and is positive if red > green
(Buy) and negative if green > red (Sell). ES (SPX) bearish
remains neutral at -0.0 SD, NQ (NDX) bearish sentiment remains at a weak Sell at
-1.5 SD, YM (DJIA) is neutral at 0.0 SD.
Click dropdown list to select from the following options:
Tech / Other History
2025
2024
2023
2022
Other Indicators
Conclusions. The primary result of Trumps economic policies,
"tariff shock", may have passed, but secondary effects, an "int rate shock" or
"inflation shock" may still remain and may catch everyone offguard as the worst
seems to be over.
Weekly Trade Alert. Next week will likely be positive with Trumps
announcement of popular tech items for exclusion from tariffs, at least until he
changes his mind. SPX options OI are indicating a likely run to 5500 or
higher before the Easter Holiday. Updates @mrktsignals.
