Article Index 2018 by Topic

2018.1 Long term forecast. The Only Thing Certain is Uncertainty
2018.01 #1 A strong January is likely to be a misleading indicator pointing to a top aka Jan 2016's sharp drop that was followed by a 2 yr 50% rally.
2018.01 #2 Sentiment indicates pullback by early Feb, VXX % vol drops to level equal month before May 2015 top, ST Indicator SELL. NDX sentiment pts higher to 7000? VIX Call Indicator gives strong SELL.
2018.01 #3 Sentiment indicates ST strength, but increased risk of larger decline afterwards. As int rates (TNX) continue to spike toward 2.7% warning zone, HUI faltering near 200. VIX Feb 14 open int shows risk of higher volatility ahead.
2018.01 #4 Sentiment indicating ending stage of bubble, but NDX bearishness may support more rally. LT SKEW shows breakdown from trend similar to 2007 top.
2018.01 #4 Sentiment indicating ending stage of bubble, but NDX bearishness may support more rally. LT SKEW shows breakdown from trend similar to 2007 top.
2018.02 #1 Comparison of 2018 in stocks, bonds & skew to 1999. Perfect storm in bonds could cause 20% crash in stocks 1st half. EOM selloffs may be QE related.
2018.02 #2 Regular sentiment indicating strong bounce likely, but LT EMAs suggest longer correction. Bonds likely to consolidate. 1994 fractal for TNX & SPX shows potential for SPX 2400 and lower next few months.
2018.02 #3 Regular sentiment similar to 2015 Aug flash crash before retest. Bond sentiment may indicate longer consolidation. HUI remains slightly negative. Options OI & 1994 fractal show pullback to SPX 2600 possible near term.
2018.02 #5 Use of 2015 flash crash analog pts to run to SPX 2800. INT retest of Feb lows likely.
2018.03 #1 Looking at SPX options for open int. Expecting possible early week pullback before jobs report, but rally late in week.
2018.03 #2 Switching to SPX options for open int. Increase in VIX calls is a warning. Looking for an SPX top 2800-20.then 2700 or lower.
2018.03 #3 SPX top in for correction thru Mar. Bearish bond sentiment lowers upward pressure on rates. HUI bearish sentiment picking up.
2018.03 #4 Intro to Dumb/Smart Money Indicators for very short term outlook. SPX nearing a bottom, but expect more weakness in NDX.
2018.03 #5 DM/SM Indicators showing likely retest of lows soon, est SPX 2550-70 then 2650. Sentiment consensus of SPX 2400s low makes it not probable. Overall sentiment supports multi-month rally soon.
2018.04 #1 SPX hits expected lows sooner than expt w/ China trade war retaliation. Two month consolidation below 2700 likely before higher levels. High bearish sentiment to hold up prices two-four months.
2018.04 #2 Bearish sentiment lower but still positive for stocks. High bearish sentiment for TNX at 2.8% may mean slower rise in rates. Intro to Risk Aversion Indicator as preference for NDX to SPX.
2018.04 #3 Bearish sentiment for overall Scoreboard and ST Indicators pt to lower prices thru end of April. NDX ETF Indicator SELL pts to lower prices for NDX. Drop to SPX 2650 by EOM could setup sizable May rally.
2018.04 #4 FOMC mid-week may provide early support to SPX, but low ST Indicator, VIX Call SELL, and Risk Aversion SELL & options OI indicate test of lower triangle TL below 2600. A look at several intra day Risk Aversion reads.
2018.05 #1 Strong SPX drop below 2600 was met by news of Buffets increased share in AAPL with strong reversal. Sentiment back to neutral/positive but may see 2740-60 later in May.
2018.05 #2 ST, Risk Aversion, options DM/SM and SPX ETF Indicators warning of small pullback over next few days. Likely test of triangle breakout before move to SPX 2740-60.
2018.05 #3 Options OI indicating early week rally SPX 2750+, but low bearish sentiment pts to larger pullback to 2675 by June 1.
2018.05 #4 Whipsaw likely next week with very ST indicators showing SELL with ST/INT near BUYs. Likely pullback to SPX 2675 then rally into mid, late June.
2018.06 #1 Sentiment improvement & BUY from SPX ST/LT indicator pt to continued rally thru mid-June, then some weakness. Using July 2017 analog.
2018.06 #2 Bearish sentiment fell sharply w/Risk Aversion and SPX ETF Indicator SELLS, expecting highs SPX 2780-90 before pullback to low 2700s.
2018.06 #3 Many indicators have reached INT SELL levels. Expecting INT top w/ SPX 2800+ possible.
2018.06 #4 Trumps trade war threats may have started correction early, INT top likely in. Analog to Nov-Dec 2015 for.SPX 2x ETF indicator may mean 4-5% pullback followed by sharp rally before bigger decline.
2018.06 #5 Sharp rise in bearish sentiment matching the early Nov 2015 pullback indicate a rally to SPX 2770-80 may start soon. Option DM/SM and SPX ETF Indicator reached BUYs. Possible inverse H&S at SPX 2700.
2018.07 #1 Sentiment measures have dropped to neutral, but SPX shows potential for a run to 2800 if 2775 is exceeded on Mon. Consoloidation likely next 1-2 weeks.
2018.07 #2 Bearish sentiment has dropped below neutral, but more upside is likely before a small pullback. NDX is looking more vulnerable to weakness.
2018.07 #3 Trade wars may have unintended consequences of higher US$, lower int rates and inflation. SPX sentiment is low enough to consider as SELL, but options OI indicate early week strength first. HUI at 170 has reached INT SELL that may depend on US$.
2018.07 #4 Relatively mild pullback so far with weakness mostly in NDX. Sharp rebound in options DM/SM indicator looks a lot like Jan run up where bears are over eager, pushing prices higher, but SPX ETF indicator showing mid week SELL so no bottom yet. Support at SPX 2800.
2018.08 #1 Trumps stimulus inflationay effects offset by trade wars slowing growth. Sentiment showing possible run to SPX 2850 or higher, but a likely retest of 2800 is expected later. HUI bearish sentiment at extreme lows of Feb 2017 before crash.
2018.08 #2 Consensus is for a continued pullback to SPX 2790 or lower, but Wall St likely to push prices higher in Aug thru 22nd to record the "longest bull market in history". Risk aversion indicator lows pt to NDX underperformance. Options DM/SM at a BUY. May see ST volatility before higher prices.
2018.08 #3 DJIA may be singing Sirens Song with NDX lagging to lure public in at top, targeting 26.5k. Overall Indicator Comp at levels of prior SPX 70-100 pt rallies. Options DM/SM supports higher prices. Opt OI resistance SPX 2875.
2018.08 #4 Longest bull market accomplished, Sept opt exp may see impt top around SPX 2950. ST sentiment mostly neutral, but opt OI shows potential for early week move to SPX 2900+ with pullback later. HUI down big.
2018.09 #1 Could see mid-Sept top w/Oct 2014 type volatility to follow. Bearish sentiment declining sharply w/NDX in lead. Top is nearing, SPX possible 2935.
2018.09 #2 Small improvement may see brief rally, expect SPX 2920-40 then 2750-2800 in Oct.
2018.09 #3 Both ST Indicator & SPX ETFs showing SELL, but Indic Scoreboard not at Jan level, decline not likely as strong as Jan. VIX Call Indicator not on sell.
2018.09 #4 Indicators are pointing to a pickup in volatility similar to Aug 2017 that could indicate a final rally if sentiment jumps sharply on further decline.
2018.09 #5 Rise in TNX rates over 3% may push investors from bonds to stocks as in Dec 2017, delaying larger stock decline.
2018.10 #1 Bearish sentiment up very little with initial stock decline and may be warning of more to come. SPX 3x smart ETF selling much stronger than 2x dumb. May see one more rally before larger 10%+ correction.
2018.10 #2 SPX decline from 2940 to 2710 saw sharp rise in bearish sentiment, but SPX ETF DM/SM still near SELL so any rally temporary.
2018.10 #3 Bearish sentiment overall still rising, but continued strong selling by SPX 3x ETF smart money is worrisome and next two weeks should indicate markets direction.
2018.10 #4 Longer term sentiment not high enough to match major bottoms since 2014. Election win by Dems may be seen as positive and seen as China trade friendly pushing SPX to 2800+, but no trade progress likely until Mar, so watch for reversal.
2018.11 #1 Normal sentiment is at a level where a bounce can occur, but DM/SM options and ETF as well as SKEW are showing extreme complacency. A decline to SPX low 2600s could rally to 2800.
2018.11 #2 Post election rally sees sharp drop in bearish sentiment, SPX ETF Indicator remains near SELL. Lower prices likely.
2018.11 #3 SPX 100 pt drop intra week left sentiment unchanged. Trade talks may see hope rally, but not much progress is expected and could send SPX to low 2500s. Decling bond bearish levels supports TNX move to 2.5% by mid 2019.
2018.11 #4 A repeat of last weeks 100 pt drop in SPX again left sentiment unchanged. Options DM/SM indicates continued drop after possible bounce toward 2800. $NYUPV/$NYDNV shows same pattern as before Aug 2015 flash crash.
2018.12 #1 Rally to SPX 2750 moves options DM/SM to strong SELL. High equity p/c shows same upward trend in weeks leading up to Aug 2015 flash crash.
2018.12 #2 Decline below SPX 2650 leads to sharp increase in bearish sentiment for normal indicators, but options DM/SM still near SELL and SPX ETF indic unfazed. Significantly lower prices likely to get dumb money to sell. May see botom near 2500 at FOMC.
2018.12 #3 Move to SPX 2600 finally saw strong selling by SPX 2x ETF dumb money, but sentiment not at levels to support a strong rally. Decline may continue to late Dec.
2018.12 #4 Sentiment indicators move to BUY with SPX move to low 2400s. SPX 2x ETF dumb money at panic extreme. Expect rally thru EOY-early Jan, but tax loss selling may push SPX to 2350 first. Int rate cycles 1998-2010 show Fed not likely to change unless Unempl > 4%. Tech indic show bottom is near w/400+ pt SPX rally possible.
2018.12 #5 Sentiment indicators mostly indicate an INT bottom similar to Mar-Apr 2018 w/400 SPX rally to follow, but SPX ETF indicator remains near neutral. Closest analog is LTCM crisis of 1998 that fell 21% in six weeks with a retest a few weeks later. A retest may explain the SPX ETF signal weakness.