2016.12 Long term forecast. What Happens When Growth Returns?
2017.01 #1 Expecting strong start to year, weakness later with higher s/t rates. Start BKX FAS/FAZ.
2017.01 #2 Indicator Scoreboard at SELL as DJIA crosses 20K. S/T Indicator holds above SELL.
2017.01 #3 Not expecting reflation rally until mid-2018. HUI nears SELL.
2017.01 #4 SPX and NDX ETFs bearish sentiment at lowest level in several years.
2017.01 #5 Looking at TRIN and VIX P/C do not see signs of significant top yet.
2017.02 #1 SPX topping pricess may continue. Gold stocks and bonds nearing SELL.
2017.02 #2 SPX may top out at 2390. Gold stocks on SELL HUI at 220.
2017.02 #3 L/T Indicator Scoreboard very bearish, but S/T Indicator refusing to show SELL.
2017.02 #4 Trump reforms delayed. VIX P/C and TRIN moving to bearish.
2017.03 #1 SPX bubble continues. HUI crushed as rates rise.
2017.03 #2 Market pressure may appear by mid-May. Bonds and HUI may bottom S/T.
2017.03 #3 Using the SKEW as indicator of large price moves, up and down,
2017.03 #4 Buy on S/T Composite & high SKEW indicate large move up for SPX likely.
2017.04 #1 EOQ windiw dressing starts rally, but sharp drop in bearishness.
2017.04 #2 Overall long term view of ETFs contradict consensus growth/inflation views.
2017.04 #3 BUY for Indicator Scoreboard and high TRIN point to final rally. Inverse HUI and TNX moves continue.
2017.04 #4 Using VIX P/C and TRIN composite shows high risk of >= 3% decline in SPX.
2017.04 #5 Nearing a SELL on SPX, possible SPX 2400+ at FOMC for top.
2017.05 #1 Possible top after French election, but lower SKEW indicates slow drop.
2017.05 #2 Very low VXX $ volume warns of probable drop SPX 2320-50 w/retest ATH by EOM June.
2017.05 #3 Mid-week drop to SPX 2350 gives ST Buy, expect 2400+. Intro to Options open interest.
2017.05 #4 SPX may remain over 2400 for a while, 7-8% pullback likely Jul-Sep. GDX options indicate 22-4 range.
2017.06 #1 SPX no signs of Sell, bonds near Sell, HUI neutral. Options show SPY 243-4 possible.
2017.06 #2 SPX overall indicator at Sell, but not smart beta p/c. Possible July top. Sell on TNX at 2.2%. Options GDX 22-4.
2017.06 #3 SPX bearish sentiment rising to neutral w/tech volatility. Options for July show resist at SPY 247. Similarities to 2014 for SPX.
2017.06 #4 SPX sentiment below neutral but NDX at Buy. Options - July 21 best prob of move to SPY 247, Sept 15 poss drop to 235. 3 volume indicators - high risk, capitulation, buy/hold/crash.
2017.07 #1 Rise in bearish sentiment may support SPX 50-75 pt rally from 2405, NDX sentiment extreme. Options using VIX monthly shows poss sharp vol rise into Sept 15.
2017.07 #2 SPX flat for week but volatility increased sentiment over neutral. Option open int show modest SPX strength to mid-Aug, QQQ strong support.
2017.07 #3 Strong rally lowers SPX sentiment, NDX sentiment points to new highs.
2017.07 #4 Overall sentiment pts to nearing top. NDX possible to 6000. VIX call indicator. Options int - down mid-Aug-Sep, up to mid-Oct.
2017.08 #1 Nearing major top. TA pts to SPX 2485-95 int top (act 2491), int target 2400, st SPY < 246.
2017.08 #2 Rapidily rising bearish sentiment likely to prevent drop to 2400. Rally to SPX 2480 possible. SPY target 246/7. VIX call indicator BUY.
2017.08 #3 Looking for SPX low 2405-15 (act 2417), possible rally into Labor Day to test ATH. HUI sentiment improving.
2017.08 #4 Bearish sentiment now at very high levels for SPX, HUI sentiment more positive.
2017.09 #1 Bounce as predicted, very high ST Indicator likely to result in 2-3 mn range 2450-2500.
2017.09 #2 Overall sentiment neutral, but high STI means more gains likely.
2017.09 #3 LT indicators show major top ahead, STI pts to SPX 2540-50 mid-Oct, Qtrly OI shows pullpack Nov-Dec low SPX 2400s.
2017.09 #4 Money flow (ETF) indicators pt to LT top ahead across asset classes. VIX call ind rising but no sell.
2017.09 #5 No change for most sentiment, but felling déjà vu to late 2015. VIX calls give SELL, may tie to NK holidays Oct 10/18.
2017.10 #1 VIX call indicator showing a sell, but ST Indiator only at neutral.
2017.10 #2 ST Indicator nowhere near a sell. Comparison to 2015 may indicate top early Nov near SPX 2600.
2017.10 #3 Upside targets reached, but persistent bearishness supports higher prices.
2017.10 #4 Possible small pullback then rally to SPX 2600, larger pullback by options exp.
2017.11 #1 Some sentiment measures show top may be near, but high VXX $ volume show top may be farther away than expected.
2017.11 #2 Expecting choppy week then move to SPX 2600+ early Dec, low SKEW means low risk of large decline. Bonds show rising bearishness that may be smart money.
2017.11 #3 Prior weeks choppiness has pushed up bearishness to level consistent with SPX 2600+ by early Dec.
2017.11 #4 More upside is likely before a pullback into mid-Dec.
2017.12 #1 Recent spike in VXX $ vol shows bears too eager, with very low revised CPC pt to a few more weeks of rally to SPX 2700+ into Jan, then 5-7% correction.
2017.12 #2 ST Indicator still positive with strong NDX upside sentiment, bonds pointing to upside breakout w/TNX 2.7-8% problem for stocks.
2017.12 #3 Consensus of SPX 3000 by EOY pts to meltup/meltdown or failure. Bond sentiment pts to higher rates.
2017.12 #4 No Santa rally points to Jan upside surprise. Early Jan over SPX 2700 w/ possible pullback to mid month.
2017.12 #5 Overall Indicator signals INT top near, ST Indicator says not yet. Mixed signals with weak close.