Last week was interesting, to say the least. The target range of SPX 6900-75 worked well thru Wed as Mon started weak with a drop to 6904 then rallied over 6980 and Tue stayed over 6950, then the Wed job numbers were a positive surprise at +130K and SPX initially rallied over 6990 before falling to 6910 midday and closed near 6950. Thur saw another AI scare as Algorhythm Holdings (RIME), a former karaoke manufacturer, released a report claiming its SemiCab AI software could reduce empty truck hauls by 70% from current one third of the time. The most amazing thing was that almost everything fell with gold, silver and oil down 2% or more, S&P trucking fell 7%, banking (BKX) 2%, NDX 2% and SPX 1.5%. RIME was a notable exception going from $100 to $600 in one day. A couple of recommended reads explaining the SAAS (software as a service) problems and Phils Stockworld's the threat of AI written mostly by seven AGI agents. Personally I don't read PSW much after the AGI's took over as they are too wordy and repetitious.
March is looking like it could be an important month. Previously I showed the huge SPX options OI straddle at 7k which I thought would continue to support prices for a while and recently found out that the next Bradley turn date is March 20. However, two prominent EW analysts disagree whether March willl be a top or bottom. Trader Joe looks at the last several months as an expanded flat with a low likely in March near SPX 6500, while Dr. ter Schrue's recent post (no J/S) thinks the NDX will top in March then decline into Oct. To me the SPX is starting to look more like a H&S with move back to the upper 6900's possible in March then a decline to the 6500's in May, but a summer rally is likely if the Fed cuts int rates in June as the CME fed funds outlook is up to a 70% prob of a June cut with 15% > 0.25% cut.
Major sentiment indicators are little changed with the ST Composite remaining on a weak Buy while the Hedge spread moved to neutral and INT/.LT indicators remain mildly negative. The biggest change in sentiment is for the NDX where futures (NQ) fell to a weak Sell and the options (ETF) and 3x ETFs indicator moved to neutral, perhaps NDX rallies into a March top as indicated by Dr. ter Schure.
I. Sentiment Indicators
The INT/LT Composite indicator (outlook 3 to 6+ months) has three separate components. Starting Aug 26, 2023 SPX options are removed due to extreme 0DTE volume distortions. New weights are ETF put-call indicator (30%), SPX 2X ETF INT ratio (40%), and 3rd a volatility indicator (30%) which combines the options volatility spread of the ST SPX (VIX) to the ST VIX (VVIX) with the UVXY $ volume.
Update Alt, INT view. Bearish sentiment remains near a weak Sell.
Update Alt EMA. Bearish sentiment remains near a weak Sell.
The ST Composite as a ST (1-4 week) indicator includes the NYSE volume ratio indicator (NYDNV/NYUPV & NYDNV/NYDEC) and the UVXY $ Vol/[SPX Trend, SMA only]. Weights are 80%/20%.Update. Bearish sentiment is just above a weak Buy.
Update EMA. Bearish sentiment is just above a weak Buy.The ST VIX calls and SPXADP indicator bearish sentiment continues to decine closer to a weak Sell
The ST/INT Composite indicator (outlook 1 to 3 months) is based on the Hedge Spread (52%) and includes ST Composite (12%) and three options FOMO indicators using SPX (12%), ETF (12%), and Equity (12%) calls compared to the NY ADV/DEC issues (inverted). FOMO is shown when strong call volume is combined with strong NY ADV/DEC. See Investment Diary addition for full discussion.
Update EMA. Bearish sentiment increased but remains midway between neutral and a weak Sell.
Update FOMO calls. Bearish sentiment fell toward a weak Sell. Bonds (TNX). Bearish sentiment remains at low extremes as rates fell with the good inflation news Fri. For the INT outlook, the gold miners (HUI) bearish sentiment is presented in a new format using the data mining software to add the inverse TNX rate to the ETF ratio.
Update. Bearish sentiment continues to fall but remains above a strong Buy.
II. Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicators
This is a new hybrid option/ETF Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicator as a INT/LT term (outlook 2-6 mns) bearish sentiment indicator. The use of ETFs increases the duration (term).
Update. Bearish sentiment remains midway between neutral and a weak Sell.
With the sister options Hedge Spread as a ST/INT indicator (outlook 1-3 mns), bearish sentiment continued to rise to neutral. A new composite SPX options indicator uses both the volume adj (1/B-A) and P/C equivalent spread (A-B) to compensate for the discrepancy between the two. This replaces the old SPX options indicator for the SPX ETFs + options below and the INT/LT composite. No chart.
For the SPX, I am switching to hybrid 2X ETFs plus SPX options. Taking a look at the
INT term composite (outlook 2 to 4 mns), bearish sentiment remains at neutral.
Bearish sentiment moved to neutral.
For the SPX combining the hybrid ETF options plus SPX 2X ETF (outlook 2 to 4 mns) produces an indicator where, in this case, ETF options are a proxy for the SPY options.
Bearish sentiment for SPX continued to rise toward neutral.
III. Options Open Interest
Using Thur closing OI, remember that further out time frames are more likely to change over time, and that closing prices are more likely to be effected. Delta hedging may occur as reinforcement, negative when put support is broken or positive when call resistance is exceeded. This week I will look out thru Feb 20. A text overlay is used for extreme OI to improve readability, P/C is not changed. Also, this week includes a look at GDX, TLT & IBIT for Mar exp. A new addition is added for OI $ amounts with breakeven pts (BE) where call & put $ amounts cross. Note multiply OI$ by 100 for shares/contract.
With Fri close at SPX 6836 and Mon Pres Day, options OI for Tue is moderate/large with strong put support at 6780 and a BE at 6930. A move toward 6900 is likely.
Wed SPX options OI is small/moderate with put support at 6800 up to 6900, call resistance is at 6950 and over 7000. 6900-50 is likely
Fri AM SPX options OI is large with put support up to 6900. 6900-50 is likely.
Fri PM SPX options OI is moderate/large with put support up to 6900 abd call resistance at 7000. Call resistance at 6975 may allow prices to rise to 6950-75.
Fri Mar 20 AM SPX options OI is large with another huge straddle at 7000 and large straddle at 6900 that lowered the BE to 6945.
IV. Technical / Other
The following uses barcharts.com as a source and discusses S&P futures (ES) as a third venue of stock sentiment in addition to options and ETFs. The non-commercial/commercial spread represents a LT bearish sentiment (dumb money/smart money) indicator. As explained in investopedia, commercial investors (red) are institutions and are smart money, while non-commercials (green) are speculators such as hedge funds and are dumb money. Here is the current barchart graph for the S&P 500 (top) and trader positions (1st bot) with positives as net longs and negatives as net shorts. Bearish sentiment is represented by the spread and is positive if red > green (Buy) and negative if green > red (Sell). ES (SPX) sentiment remains neutral + .2 SD, NQ (NDX) dropped to a weak Sell at -1.0 SD, YM (DJIA) remains below neutral at -0.25 SD. A quick look at gold (GC), bearish sentiment is in-between a weak and strong Sell at -1.5 SD.
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Conclusions. Sentiment had been warning of weakness in tech for a
while. but until last Nov the mere mention of a company using AI would send its
stock up 10%. Now the focus seems to be shifting to the potential
disruptive effects, not only the displacement of workers, but possibly entire
industries. Similar to the housing crisis after the fall of Lehman Bros,
the overreaction Thur may be a warning of bigger problems ahead as everyone
begins to wonder who is next.
Weekly Trade Alert. The BTFDers took a long weekend Thur/Fri, if
they return next week SPX 6900-50+ is possible. Updates @mrktsignals.
Investment Diary,
Indicator Primer,
Tech/Other Refs,
update 2021.07.xx
Data Mining Indicators - Update, Summer 2021,
update 2020.02.07 Data Mining Indicators,
update 2019.04.27 Stock Buybacks,
update 2018.03.28 Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicators
Article Index 2019 by Topic, completed thru EOY 2020.02.04
Article Index 2018 by Topic
Article Index 2017 by Topic
Article Index 2016 by Topic
Long term forecasts
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