Saturday, May 27, 2023

Watch Out, Wall Street is Turning Bullish!

Last week a pullback was expected within a general range of SPX 4100 to 4220 thru mid-June with a warning that prices could be driven by debt ceiling rumors.  Initial negative debt ceiling rumors took prices to the Wed SPX put support level at 4105, but a more positive outlook took the SPX back to 4215 with the help of more AI fueled mania from Nvidia's chip outlook.  Next week could see something similar with some disappointment Thur-Fri if the initial June 1 X-date does not see a debt ceiling deal and June 2 sees another strong jobs report, pushing int rates higher.  With the new X-date set for June 5 (Mon), a late week rally and follow thru the next Mon is likely.  The debt ceiling rumors are starting to remind me of the Fed "pivot" rumors that were so common a few months ago, and I just wonder if the media or WS is running the rumor mills.  I saw a recent article comparing this debt ceiling "crisis" to 2011 which only ended after a stock market "panic" in Aug.

The sharp rise in int rates (TNX) continued last week with rates closing in on 4% with a close at 3.8%.  Last week economic data for US GDP for Q1 was revised upward to 1.3% from  1% and PCE remained "sticky" rising to 5%, dashing hopes for the desired "pivot" late 2023.  The high in rates last Oct was 4.3% and a move over 4%, possible with another strong jobs report June 2, is likely to negatively effect stock prices.

With prices remaining in a tight range many of the sentiment indicators remain in a tight range with the notable exception of the hedge spread that is dropping sharply and the ST Composite that turned positive, so expect more volatility with a possible positive bias.


I. Sentiment Indicators

The INT/LT Composite indicator (outlook 3 to 6+ months) has three separate components. 1st is the SPX and ETF put-call indicators (40%), 2nd the SPX 2X ETF INT ratio (30%), and 3rd a volatility indicator (30%) which combines the options volatility spread of the ST SPX (VIX) to the ST VIX (VVIX) with the UVXY $ volume.  This week breaks SPX options into volume adj (1/B-A) and traditional spread (A-B).

Update Alt. In this case the wts for the SPX 2X ETF ratio (SDS/SSO) and SPX puts & calls spread are adj to equal as in the DM/SM section for SPX ETFs.  Bearish sentiment remains unchanged at the weak Sell.

Update Alt EMA.  Bearish sentiment is slightly lower, but could fall considerably before an INT top similar to 2021. The ST Composite as a ST (1-4 week) indicator includes the NYSE volume ratio indicator (NYDNV/NYUPV & NYDNV/NYDEC) and the UVXY $ Vol/SPX Trend. Weights are 80%/20%.

Update. Bearish sentiment imprived slightly, but remains near neutral.


Update EMA. Bearish sentiment very ST (grn) moved to positive. The ST/INT Composite indicator (outlook 1 to 3 months) is based on the Hedge Spread (48%) and includes ST Composite (12%) and three options FOMO indicators using SPX (12%), ETF (12%), and Equity (12%) calls compared to the NY ADV/DEC issues (inverted). FOMO is shown when strong call volume is combined with strong NY ADV/DEC. See Investment Diary addition for full discussion.

Update EMA. Bearish sentiment has moved to slightly more negative.

Bonds (TNX)Bearish sentiment remains mostly unchanged as TNX int rates at 3.8% are nearing the important 4.0% level.

For the INT outlook with LT still negative, the gold miners (HUI) bearish sentiment is presented in a new format using the data mining software to add the inverse TNX rate to the ETF ratio.

Update. Bearish sentiment increased somewhat as prices continued to fall, but remains negative near the weak Sell.



II. Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicators

This is a new hybrid option/ETF Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicator as a INT/LT term (outlook 2-6 mns) bearish sentiment indicator. The use of ETFs increases the duration (term).

Update. Bearish sentiment rose slightly but remains near the weak Sell.

An early DM/SM indicator from 2015 was the SPX 2x/3x ETF ratio. Bearish sentiment is fairly similar to the more complex current indicator, but is somewhat more positively biased. With the sister options Hedge Spread as a ST/INT indicator (outlook 1-3 mns), bearish sentiment fell sharply, nearing the level seen at the Feb top. A new composite SPX options indicator uses both the volume adj (1/B-A) and P/C equivalent spread (A-B) to compensate for the discrepancy between the two.  This replaces the old SPX options indicator for the SPX ETFs + options below and the INT/LT composite. No chart.

For the SPX, I am switching to hybrid 2X ETFs plus SPX options. Taking a look at the INT term composite (outlook 2 to 4 mns), bearish sentiment is down slightly.

For the NDX combining the hybrid ETF options plus NDX 3X ETF sentiment with the interest rate effect,  (outlook 2 to 4 mns) bearish sentiment shows similar extremes between ETF and options as in late 2020 which resulted in a choppy market until options sentiment rose.  Note QQQ options are optimal, but are N/A and are included in ETF options.

Bearish sentiment is mostly unchanged despite the 5% rally last week, now well above the 13.7k target since Jan, and now challenging the 62% retrace of the entire 2022 decline.



III. Options Open Interest

Using Thur closing OI, remember that further out time frames are more likely to change over time, and that closing prices are more likely to be effected. Delta hedging may occur as reinforcement, negative when put support is broken or positive when call resistance is exceeded.  This week I will look out thru June 2. A text overlay is used for extreme OI to improve readability, P/C is not changed. Also, this week includes a look at the GDX and TLT for June 16 exp.   An addition is added for OI $ amounts with breakeven pts (BE) where call & put $ amounts cross.

With Fri close at SPX 4205, options OI for Tue is small with call resistance at 4200 and over, and put support at 4125.
Wed EOM has very large OI where SPX has strong call resistance at 4185 and first put support at 4150.  A pullback toward 4150 is likely.
For Fri w/jobs data, moderate OI shows the potential for a wide price range between SPX 4100 and 4200.   A strong jobs report could prices to 4100, while debt ceiling rumors, if not decided, may push prices back toward 4200 with a Mon June 5 X-date.

Using the GDX as a gold miner proxy closing at 30.4, fairly strong put support may limit the downside to 29.5, while a move over 31 could rise to 33.

Currently the TLT is 101.1 with the TNX at 3.81%, the recent rise in rates must be befuddling to all of the bond bulls (calls), and TLT has fallen almost to put support at 100.5, any lower could target the next support level at 95 (TNX 4.25%). 


IV. Technical / Other

The following uses barcharts.com as a source and discusses S&P futures (ES) as a third venue of stock sentiment in addition to options and ETFs.  The non-commercial/commercial spread represents a LT bearish sentiment (dumb money/smart money) indicator. As explained in investopedia, commercial investors (red) are institutions and are smart money, while non-commercials (green) are speculators such as hedge funds and are dumb money. Here is the current  barchart graph for the S&P 500 (top) and trader positions (1st bot) with positives as net longs and negatives as net shorts.  Bearish sentiment is represented by the spread and is positive if red > green (Buy) and negative if green > red (Sell).  Sentiment is a strong BUY.


Conclusions.  One thing I wonder about all of the debt ceiling discussions is why no one talks about the effects of inflation.  With close to half of all spending indexed to inflation (including entitlements, govt and military salaries) and likely others. the same amount of dollars buys less every year.  Of course, inflation has been a tactic used by governments to pay off debts for centuries since the Romans.  With inflation at 5% and 10 year int rates at 4%, the gov't gets paid 1% a year (negative int rates) to borrow money and at the end of 10 years pays the money back with dollars worth half as much.  Recognize that nominal GDP and tax revenues also increase at the rate of inflation, so in 10 years GDP and revenue doubles and debt to GPD decreases by 50%.

My estimate is that the current debt limit debates have a 50% chance of dragging out for weeks, and if past June 16, then months.

Weekly Trade Alert.  If no debt decision by June 1, then down thru Fri AM possibly to SPX 4100, then up thru early following week.  Updates @mrktsignals.

Investment DiaryIndicator Primer, Tech/Other Refs,
 update 2021.07.xx  Data Mining Indicators - Update, Summer 2021,
 update 2020.02.07 Data Mining Indicators,
 update 2019.04.27 Stock Buybacks,
 update 2018.03.28 Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicators

Article Index 2019 by Topic, completed thru EOY 2020.02.04
Article Index 2018 by Topic
Article Index 2017 by Topic
Article Index 2016 by Topic

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© 2023 SentimentSignals.blogspot.com

Saturday, May 20, 2023

Did Anyone Sell in May?

Admittedly, last weeks meltup was a bit of a surprise with both Dem Biden and GOP McCarthy spreadng "false claims" of a near term debt ceiling agreement which powered the SPX and NDX to new highs for the year.  I should have paid more attention to my "Deja vu 2015" scenario since the high for May and the year was made on optn exp Fri May 21.  One thing to note for 2015, if similarities continue, is a difference between topping patterns for the NDX and SPX as the SPX topped in May 2015 while NDX topped in July.  With the recent rise in int rates (TNX) and NDX exceeding the price objective at 13.7k, this time may be different with NDX topping first.  Also notable was that tests of the highs came in both June and July during optn exp week before the Aug optn exp week collapse.

Two weeks ago, I was expecting a retest of the Feb highs at 4195 or better to reset bearish sentiment as most EW analysts consider this as a reversal level pointing to the SPX 4300+ level.  Although this may be true, I expect it more likely to be a fakeout that falls short, perhaps to ~SPX 4250.  In any case, due to the similarities noted to the mid-2015 topping period (also a pre-election year), this weeks Tech/Other section covers three of the best indicators for that period (hedge spread, INT Volatility, and VIX Call indicators) and compares them to todays markets.


I. Sentiment Indicators

The INT/LT Composite indicator (outlook 3 to 6+ months) has three separate components. 1st is the SPX and ETF put-call indicators (40%), 2nd the SPX 2X ETF INT ratio (30%), and 3rd a volatility indicator (30%) which combines the options volatility spread of the ST SPX (VIX) to the ST VIX (VVIX) with the UVXY $ volume.  This week breaks SPX options into volume adj (1/B-A) and traditional spread (A-B).

Update Alt. In this case the wts for the SPX 2X ETF ratio (SDS/SSO) and SPX puts & calls spread are adj to equal as in the DM/SM section for SPX ETFs.  Bearish sentiment is back below the weak Sell level and may lead to weakness next week.

Update Alt EMA.  Bearish sentiment continues to work its way lower, but could fall considerably lower before an INT top similar to 2021. The ST Composite as a ST (1-4 week) indicator includes the NYSE volume ratio indicator (NYDNV/NYUPV & NYDNV/NYDEC) and the UVXY $ Vol/SPX Trend. Weights are 80%/20%.

Update. Bearish sentiment was near the Buy level last week, but has now reversed and may mean some weakness ahead.


Update EMA. Bearish sentiment has moved to slightly negative. The ST/INT Composite indicator (outlook 1 to 3 months) is based on the Hedge Spread (48%) and includes ST Composite (12%) and three options FOMO indicators using SPX (12%), ETF (12%), and Equity (12%) calls compared to the NY ADV/DEC issues (inverted). FOMO is shown when strong call volume is combined with strong NY ADV/DEC. See Investment Diary addition for full discussion.

Update EMA. Bearish sentiment continued to fall as weaker hedging was not a factor last week.

Bonds (TNX)Bearish sentiment remains near the Sell level as int rates rose sharply as hints of a debt ceiling solution surfaced. For the INT outlook with LT still negative, the gold miners (HUI) bearish sentiment is presented in a new format using the data mining software to add the inverse TNX rate to the ETF ratio.

Update. Bearish sentiment remains below neutral as debt ceiling rumors seemed to reverse a broad spectrum of safety trades including bonds, gold and the dollar.



II. Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicators

This is a new hybrid option/ETF Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicator as a INT/LT term (outlook 2-6 mns) bearish sentiment indicator. The use of ETFs increases the duration (term).

Update. Bearish sentiment remains at the warning level of a weak Sell, but several months of SPX strength may remain.

With the sister options Hedge Spread as a ST/INT indicator (outlook 1-3 mns), bearish sentiment is down but remains slightly above neutral. A new composite SPX options indicator uses both the volume adj (1/B-A) and P/C equivalent spread (A-B) to compensate for the discrepancy between the two.  This replaces the old SPX options indicator for the SPX ETFs + options below and the INT/LT composite. No chart.
For the SPX, I am switching to hybrid 2X ETFs plus SPX options. Taking a look at the INT term composite (outlook 2 to 4 mns), bearish sentiment retreated slightly.
For the NDX combining the hybrid ETF options plus NDX 3X ETF sentiment with the interest rate effect,  (outlook 2 to 4 mns) bearish sentiment shows similar extremes between ETF and options as in late 2020 which resulted in a choppy market until options sentiment rose.  Note QQQ options are optimal, but are N/A and are included in ETF options.

Bearish sentiment continued to fall sharply, now below neutral and lower than the SPX, and prices may start to lag SPX.



III. Options Open Interest

Using Thur closing OI, remember that further out time frames are more likely to change over time, and that closing prices are more likely to be effected. Delta hedging may occur as reinforcement, negative when put support is broken or positive when call resistance is exceeded.  This week I will look out thru May 26. A text overlay is used for extreme OI to improve readability, P/C is not changed.   A new addition is added for OI $ amounts with breakeven pts (BE) where call & put $ amounts cross.

With Fri close at SPX 4192, options OI for Mon is moderate.  Call resistance is high at 4200.  Above SPX 4185 a move back to 4200 is possible, below support is at 4175.
Wed has somewhat smaller OI where SPX could push to 4210+ if over 4185, but put support drops to 4100.
For Fri strong call resistance at 4200 down to 4150 will likely keep prices down for the week with 4150 or lower likely.

For EOM May 31, strong SPX OI shows strong call resistance at 4200 and little put support until 4150..


IV. Technical / Other

Following the comparison to the mid-2015 period, I wanted to look at some of the indicators that fared best during that period and compare them to today.  One significant difference was that this was the end of a two year bull phase from 2013, while 2023 follows the 2022 bear phase which means that current hedging is upwardly biased.

The first indicator is the hedge spread, here we see the lower bias similar to 2021, but it still performed well particularly in the more volatile last half of the period.

The second indicator is the INT volatility indicator where I was looking for a trigger point for the sudden pickup in volatility.  Here, we see the Dec 2021 (bot) sentiment lows were similar to Dec 2014 (top) and current levels are not too different than mid 2014 and that the spike higher in June 2022 was similar to that of Feb 2016.

The third indicator is the familar ST VIX call indicator.  It's difficult to make comparisons between the two periods other than to say the indicator worked equally well in either period.  The current pattern of lower highs and lower lows does look consistent with mid-2015.

The following uses barcharts.com as a source and discusses S&P futures (ES) as a third venue of stock sentiment in addition to options and ETFs.  The non-commercial/commercial spread represents a LT bearish sentiment (dumb money/smart money) indicator. As explained in investopedia, commercial investors (red) are institutions and are smart money, while non-commercials (green) are speculators such as hedge funds and are dumb money. Here is the current (Tues)  barchart graph for the S&P 500 (top) and trader positions (1st bot) with positives as net longs and negatives as net shorts.  Bearish sentiment is represented by the spread and is positive if red > green (Buy) and negative if green > red (Sell).  Sentiment is a strong BUY.


Conclusions.  Comparisons to May 2015 are interesting and suggest a drop down to SPX 4150 by EOM and 4100 early June.  With NFP on June 2, another strong jobs number may be catalyst for a downturn.  Looking for a 2-3% range of SPX 4100-4120+ thru a mid-June high for optn exp/FOMC, then a larger pullback into early July.  This would seem to imply another Fed rate hike in June or delay in the debt ceiling agreement.  Note surprises/rumors regarding the debt ceiling are likely to swamp other indicators.

Weekly Trade Alert.  Weakness below SPX 4185 could extend down to 4150 by EOW, EOM.  Updates @mrktsignals.

Investment DiaryIndicator Primer, Tech/Other Refs,
 update 2021.07.xx  Data Mining Indicators - Update, Summer 2021,
 update 2020.02.07 Data Mining Indicators,
 update 2019.04.27 Stock Buybacks,
 update 2018.03.28 Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicators

Article Index 2019 by Topic, completed thru EOY 2020.02.04
Article Index 2018 by Topic
Article Index 2017 by Topic
Article Index 2016 by Topic

Long term forecasts

© 2023 SentimentSignals.blogspot.com

Saturday, May 13, 2023

A May 2015 Deja Vu for 2023?

A May 2015 Deja Vu for 2023?

A tossup it was.  Last week, faced with little directional sentiment bias, I simply called for a "tossup" in the trade alert section.  Although I expected positive inflation news could produce a retest of the SPX 4195 area, the overall outlook remain for lower lows in May, probably SPX 4000 or lower.  Instead, concerns over the debt limit deadline seemed to override other news and "good" CPI and PPI only resulted in a trading range from SPX 4100-50.  This seems to be an almost annual event and I saw an article that since 1960 the debt limit has had to be raised 78 times or about 1.2 times a year and there has never been a default, so probably just more bear porn.  This did remind me of something I had seen before, so I pulled up an old chart of May 2015 (below). Although I don't expect an exact repeat, one possibility that could come close is a rise in int rates (TNX) to 4%+ in the Fall with a soft/no landing and a pickup in growth (selloff #1), then early 2024 a "pivot" from those expecting the Fed to cut rates to one expecting more rate hikes (selloff #2).

The biggest change in sentiment this week came from sharply lower bearish sentiment in hedging and in the NDX, although the ST composite is at a near weak Buy.  With NDX providing most of the support for the SPX this year, a pullback thru the end of May into the debt limit X-date of June 1 seems most likely. Then a positive debt limit outcome and a Fed pause should provide fuel for a positive June.  I still have a 13.7k target for the NDX, but no definite target for SPX (maybe 4250 with recent lag of NDX).  Simon at iSPXETF expects at least a gap fill at 4218 and possibly a 61.8% retrace of the 2022 bear at 4300+.

Some small indicator changes this week with the INT/LT Composite VIX volatility ratio replaced with the spread as explained in Tech/Other and the SPX options adj for the DM/SM Indicator replaced with a more compatible SPX options DM/SM indicator.


I. Sentiment Indicators

The INT/LT Composite indicator (outlook 3 to 6+ months) has three separate components. 1st is the SPX and ETF put-call indicators (40%), 2nd the SPX 2X ETF INT ratio (30%), and 3rd a volatility indicator (30%) which combines the options volatility spread of the ST SPX (VIX) to the ST VIX volatility (VVIX) with the UVXY $ volume.  This week breaks SPX options into volume adj (1/B-A) and traditional spread (A-B) and replaces volatility ratio with spread.

Update Alt. In this case the wts for the SPX 2X ETF ratio (SDS/SSO) and SPX puts & calls spread are adj to equal as in the DM/SM section for SPX ETFs.  Bearish sentiment remains near the weak Sell down slightly for the week.

Update Alt EMA.  Bearish sentiment remains near the weak Sell level. The ST Composite as a ST (1-4 week) indicator includes the NYSE volume ratio indicator (NYDNV/NYUPV & NYDNV/NYDEC) and the UVXY $ Vol/SPX Trend. Weights are 80%/20%.

Update. Bearish sentiment rose to just below the weak Buy level and may support prices for optn exp week.


Update EMA. Bearish sentiment rose for the week to the highs of the last two weeks and may delay any breakdown. The ST/INT Composite indicator (outlook 1 to 3 months) is based on the Hedge Spread (48%) and includes ST Composite (12%) and three options FOMO indicators using SPX (12%), ETF (12%), and Equity (12%) calls compared to the NY ADV/DEC issues (inverted). FOMO is shown when strong call volume is combined with strong NY ADV/DEC. See Investment Diary addition for full discussion.

Update EMA. Bearish sentiment fell sharply with a decline in hedging and likely means an increase in volatility.

Bonds (TNX)Bearish sentiment remains near recent lows as the rounded bottom continues. For the INT outlook with LT still negative, the gold miners (HUI) bearish sentiment is presented in a new format using the data mining software to add the inverse TNX rate to the ETF ratio.

Update. Bearish sentiment remains near the weak Sell with neutral ETF sentiment.



II. Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicators

This is a new hybrid option/ETF Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicator as a INT/LT term (outlook 2-6 mns) bearish sentiment indicator. The use of ETFs increases the duration (term).  A change was made to reflect a more consistent option adj with DM/SM outlook.

Update. Bearish sentiment declined sharply to the weak Sell level.

With the sister options Hedge Spread as a ST/INT indicator (outlook 1-3 mns), bearish sentiment fell sharply mostly in the tech stocks.. A new composite SPX options indicator uses both the volume adj (1/B-A) and P/C equivalent spread (A-B) to compensate for the discrepancy between the two.  This replaces the old SPX options indicator for the SPX ETFs + options below and the INT/LT composite. No chart.

For the SPX, I am switching to hybrid 2X ETFs plus SPX options. Taking a look at the INT term composite (outlook 2 to 4 mns), bearish sentiment rose slightly to near neutral.
For the NDX combining the hybrid ETF options plus NDX 3X ETF sentiment with the interest rate effect,  (outlook 2 to 4 mns) bearish sentiment shows similar extremes between ETF and options as in late 2020 which resulted in a choppy market until options sentiment rose.  Note QQQ options are optimal, but are N/A and are included in ETF options.

Bearish sentiment bearish sentiment fell sharply, indicating a moderate pullback is likely.  Market performance is expected.



III. Options Open Interest

Using Thur closing OI, remember that further out time frames are more likely to change over time, and that closing prices are more likely to be effected. Delta hedging may occur as reinforcement, negative when put support is broken or positive when call resistance is exceeded.  This week I will look out thru May 19. A text overlay is used for extreme OI to improve readability, P/C is not changed.  A new addition is added for OI $ amounts with breakeven pts (BE) where call & put $ amounts cross.

With Fri close at SPX 4124, options OI for Mon is small with only minor put support at 4075 and call resistance starting at 4150.  A drop below SPX 4100 is likely.
Wed OI is very small, but with better put support up to SPX 4100 and call resistance at 4150.  A move back to SPX 4100 is likely but Fri AM position may cause a reverse lower by the close.
For Fri AM strong OI and a low BE may push the SPX down to the strong put support at 4050 with small call resistance at 4125.

For Fri PM SPX OI put support extends up to 4125 if SPX makes it to 4100, below 4100 the ITM calls may exert pressure down to 4050-75.

For May 31, EOM moderate OI indicates call resistance at SPX 4100 and higher while strong put support is at 4000.  Likely range is SPX 4000-4100.


IV. Technical / Other

After reading a couple of articles last week about how the low VIX meant the return of a bear market, I decided to take a look at the VIX indicators.  Currently, I use three VIX measures: the 1 mn VIX, the 3 mn VXV (or VIX3M), and VIX volatility VVIX.  A new indicator for same day options came out recently, VIX1D, but there is no history.  Common uses are the VIX term structure VIX/VXV and VIX volatility ratio VIX/VVIX, both are shown below.  The VIX volatility ratio is clearly a better LT indicator and is used in the INT/LT Composite.


I hadn't looked at the individual components before and when i did I noticed the Buys tend to occur when VIX (grn) is higher than VVIX (red), and Sells when red is higher than grn.
To see what the overall sentiment looks like, I decided to look at the spread.  Here, this clearly shows that sentiment depends on more than just the VIX, but the VIX relative to the VVIX.
When compared to the VIX/VVIX ratio (below), the spread (above) appears to be the better timing tool for LT tops and will be used in the INT/LT Composite from today forward.

The following uses barcharts.com as a source and discusses S&P futures (ES) as a third venue of stock sentiment in addition to options and ETFs.  The non-commercial/commercial spread represents a LT bearish sentiment (dumb money/smart money) indicator. As explained in investopedia, commercial investors (red) are institutions and are smart money, while non-commercials (green) are speculators such as hedge funds and are dumb money. Here is the current  barchart graph for the S&P 500 (top) and trader positions (1st bot) with positives as net longs and negatives as net shorts.  Bearish sentiment is represented by the spread and is positive if red > green (Buy) and negative if green > red (Sell).  Sentiment remains a strong BUY.

Conclusions.  "Sell in May" has failed to produce the expected results so far, even with bank failures, CRE problems, and debt limit impasse, so what goes?  Very possibly the cheerleading bears are ignoring the fact that record amounts of stimulus and one year of interest rates going from 0 to 4%+ are not enough to offset all of the accumulated funds borrowed over the last ten years at record lows.  INT/LT sentiment still indicates that a significant correction (10%+) is still likely several months away, and current price patterns and timing are similar to mid-2015 that points to potential problems in the Fall.  Tech stocks that have been leading the market were likely aided by one-time cost reductions (layoffs) and may suffer if int rates rise and EPS levels off.

Weekly Trade Alert.  Some inital weakness below SPX 4100 (4075 possible), then bounce mid-week (4100+) before a fade toward 4150 by EOW.  SPX 400 looks possible by EOM.  Updates @mrktsignals.

Investment DiaryIndicator Primer, Tech/Other Refs,
 update 2021.07.xx  Data Mining Indicators - Update, Summer 2021,
 update 2020.02.07 Data Mining Indicators,
 update 2019.04.27 Stock Buybacks,
 update 2018.03.28 Dumb Money/Smart Money Indicators

Article Index 2019 by Topic, completed thru EOY 2020.02.04
Article Index 2018 by Topic
Article Index 2017 by Topic
Article Index 2016 by Topic

Long term forecasts

© 2023 SentimentSignals.blogspot.com