Saturday, November 14, 2015

Sentiment Update, Nearing Oversold Bounce, Nov 14, 2015

My condolences to all Parisians.  The groundwork for a drop to SPX 1970  early next week was laid out Friday based on the VIX term structure timing model (  Looking over some of the charts, this level also corresponds to the DJIA at 16750 which is the bottom of a line connecting the Aug and Oct lows.

Many indicators including the NYSE A-D line, NYMO, and NYUD point to an approaching tradeable  bottom. My sentiment composite reading is still in neutral although the put/call ratio component is reaching an extreme that suggests a fast and furious short-covering rally (100+ SPX pts) before a more serious decline. The rally is likely to top by Thanksgiving.

CPC P/C revised by subtracting vix puts and calls (yes CBOE includes vix calls/puts with equity calls/puts in CPC and CPCI).

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