Sunday, November 29, 2015

HUI Sentiment Using DUST/NUGT as "Synthetic" Put/Call Ratio

On Nov 24, I showed that leveraged long/short ETF pairs could be used to measure sentiment for the S&P 500 with similar results to other sentiment measures and therefore might produce similar results for other investments. The bottom two-year chart for CNN's  Fear & Greed Index can be used for comparison.

Today I want to add the sentiment results for another type of investment, the gold miners HUI, using the DUST/NUGT ETF pair.  The chart below shows the results from Jan 1, 2013 thru Nov 25:

The chart looks very similar to the SPX charts turned upside down.  Here, persistent low levels of bearishness have led to continued lower prices for most of the period, except for an few spikes.  Something changed, however, starting in June.  Since then, a persistent spike in bearish sentiment has accompanied the trading range at lower prices, almost a mirror image of the mid-2014 topping pattern in prices.

 Based strictly on the comparison to the sentiment readings from the last two rallies of about 30% from year-end lows in 2013 and 2014, the rally from this year's low should be about twice as much or 50-60% sometime the first half of 2016.  This should not be used to time the exact bottom, but I am expecting a low in Dec-Jan based on collapsing demand for gold from China.

No comments:

Post a Comment