Monday, September 5, 2016

Enjoy the Halftime Break

As expected, the Initial Unemployment Claims correctly forecast a weaker jobs report on Friday than last month with a resulting bounce from the 2160 area I expected.  From a trading perspective, however, most of the week looked like distribution with early morning selloffs followed by slow rallies throughout the day, so I did not play the rally.  Not much change in the indicators with mostly neutral readings.  With football season beginning, I would compare this to halftime with the bulls ahead in the score, the only question is whether the second half will see a change in momentum.

The overall Indicator Scoreboard is little changed from last week.

The Short term Indicator has also flattened out with a slightly negative bias.

The VIX P/C is also little changed, hovering near the mean.

Conclusion.  There is little reason for excitement, as the indicators continue to grind sideways in a pattern most similar to the first half of 2015.  Still working on the DUST/NUGT splits, so no results until next week.

Weekly Trade Alert.  The daily trading patterns last week kept me from going long at SPX 2160, but I doubt that the current rally exceeds 2185 for long and is likely to revisit the 2160 area soon.  No trades for now.

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